Democratic Transitions and Authoritarian Persistence

Our fourth and final research area is devoted to democratic transitions and authoritarian persistence. Despite the unprecedented triumph of liberal democracy in the 20th century, authoritarian rulers still dominate many countries. The developments in Sudan after the fall of long-term dictator al-Bashir illustrate the challenges of democratization processes. The fall of a dictator does not necessarily lead to the establishment of functioning democratic institutions. In several projects, we analyze which factors influence whether democratization succeeds and under which circumstances autocrats can remain in power. Among other things, we investigate the role of mass mobilization and civil society in democratization processes and autocrats' responses to dissent. Furthermore, we are working on measuring democratization and autocratization processes to make these phenomena more amenable to quantitative analysis. Thereby, we aim to contribute to a better understanding of the onset and outcome of regime transformations.