Dreaming rich
When people are confronted with high income inequality, they develop an unrealistically optimistic view of their chances for social mobility. This misjudgment leads them to show less support for political redistribution—a mechanism that stabilizes social inequality. This conclusion was reached by WZB researchers Julia Baumann and Yiming Liu in their current study, which is based on cross-country survey data and an online experiment.
Why does inequality persist in democratic societies? Classical economic theory assumes a self-correcting mechanism: the greater the inequality becomes, the poorer the average electorate becomes compared to the top. This should increase demand for redistribution, which would reduce inequality again.
Reality looks different. In many democratic countries, inequality has not decreased but increased in recent decades. At the same time, studies show that higher inequality is accompanied by stagnating or even declining support for redistributive measures. The self-correcting mechanism apparently does not take effect.
The psychological key: motivated beliefs about upward mobility
Julia Baumann and Yiming Liu provide a psychological explanation for this phenomenon. Their study shows: the larger the income gap between the top and bottom, the more attractive upward mobility appears. This prospect of high advancement leads people to manipulate their own beliefs and systematically overestimate their chances of success—the researchers call this a "motivated belief."
This self-overestimation has far-reaching political consequences. Those who believe they will soon belong to the economic elite are less likely to support measures that would tax high incomes more heavily or redistribute wealth. Instead of triggering demands for more redistribution, growing inequality creates a self-reinforcing cycle: it feeds unrealistic optimism, which in turn favors its continuation.
When dreams stabilize reality
This mechanism explains why strongly unequal societies often fail to generate political pressure for redistribution. Inequality maintains itself through its effect on people's beliefs and political preferences. The cycle functions not only through election results and legislation, but also through the psychological processes of people in unequal societies.
A dilemma for politics
For people with low incomes, the optimistic belief in future wealth offers a kind of psychological relief that makes their current situtation more bearable. This presents politics with a dilemma: on the one hand, realistic information about actually limited opportunities for advancement can lead to more rational voting behavior and more support for redistribution. On the other hand, disappointment about real opportunities for advancement would further impair the mental well-being of those who are already struggling economically.
However, the study also shows that people tend to hold on to their optimistic beliefs even when confronted with information about actual opportunities for advancement. Political measures aimed at promoting informed democratic participation must take these challenges into account.
12.12.2025 / MP