Future and career plans before high school graduation (ZuBAb study)

Abstract

Background

In recent years, the number of young students in Germany who earn a university entrance qualification has continually risen. However, the likelihood of entering higher education is still strongly linked to social origin. For this reason, an increasing number of counseling programs have been implemented in recent years that aim to break the link between young people's educational decisions and their social origin. However, in the German context, little is known about whether these programs have the intended effect.

In the project “Future and Career Plans Before High School Graduation” (ZuBAb), the University of Cologne and the Berlin Social Science Center (WZB) evaluated such a program in North Rhine-Westphalia, so-called “NRW-Talentscouting”, from 2016 to 2024. The project used a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the impact of the program. It also provided a comprehensive overview of the post-school education and future plans of secondary school students in North Rhine-Westphalia, alongside findings on how to support young adults in their educational decisions. Among other things, the first phases confirmed the positive effect of the intensive and long-term counseling. 

Main content

Objective

The current phase is directly linked to the previous phases of the project. Based on the knowledge gained so far, the current phase aims to extend and deepen the initial results of the ZuBAb study. New in this phase is the addition of the Leibniz Institute for Educational Trajectories (LIfBi) as a cooperation partner.

First, the counselors, so-called “Talentscouts“, will be examined in more detail. These professionals are crucial to the implementation of the program and therefore to its effectiveness. Despite their key role, little is known about them in Germany, where, unlike in North America for example, there is no standardized training for counselors. One aim of the current phase of the project is, therefore, to gain deeper insight into various aspects related to the counselors, from basic socio-demographic and professional characteristics to how they perceive educational success and equal opportunities, and how this perception is incorporated into their professional identity.

Second, the focus is on investigating the effect of the program. In the previous funding phases, this was determined at a high methodological level using an experimental research design. However, in the field experiment, not all aspects of the program corresponded exactly to the real world conditions. Therefore, the current funding phase aims to examine the effect under real world conditions at the population level, i.e. for the entire state of North Rhine-Westphalia.

Third, the project will carry out further in-depth analyses of the longitudinal data already collected. This will focus on the most recent waves of the survey to examine the long-term impact of the program and to explore selected aspects in greater depth.

Approach and Methods

In order to achieve the objectives of the project, different methods will be employed.

First, a quantitative survey of the counselors is planned. This survey is intended to be a full census.

Second, external data sources will be used to examine the program’s impact, thereby extending the existing results with secondary data. Using a quasi-experimental design, the higher education enrolment rates at schools where the counseling program is offered will be compared to those at comparable schools where the program is not offered. This will allow for a quasi-experimental estimate of the program’s effect at the population level.

Third, the already collected longitudinal data (from the randomized controlled trial) will be statistically analyzed, with multivariate analysis methods being employed to investigate, for example, the long-term effects of the program and potential gender-specific differences.

Selected Publications

Erdmann, Melinda/Pietrzyk, Irena/Schneider, Juliana/Helbig, Marcel/Jacob, Marita (2025): Same but different: Gender, social origin, and university access. Results from a field experiment on guidance counseling. Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, 98, 101062. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rssm.2025.101062

Pietrzyk, Irena/Erdmann, Melinda/Schneider, Juliana/Jacob, Marita/Helbig, Marcel (2025): Guidance Counseling Can Reduce Inequality in University Enrollment in Germany: Results from a Randomized Controlled Trial. Sociology of Education, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1177/00380407251323888

Erdmann, Melinda/Schneider, Juliana/Pietrzyk, Irena/Jacob, Marita/Helbig, Marcel (Eds.) (2025): Auf dem Weg zur Hochschulbildung. Beiträge aus Wissenschaft und Praxis aus NRW. [Towards Higher Education: Insights from Research and Practice in North Rhine-Westphalia] Waxmann. www.waxmann.com/buch4976

Erdmann, Melinda/Schneider, Juliana/Pietrzyk, Irena/Helbig, Marcel/Jacob (2023): The impact of guidance counselling on gender segregation: Major choice and persistence in higher education. An experimental study. Frontiers in Sociology 8. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsoc.2023.1154138 

Pietrzyk, Irena/Helbig, Marcel (2023): To benefit from an educational program, you need to participate: participation patterns in an educational intervention promoting college access. Journal for Educational Research Online. https://doi.org/10.31244/jero.2023.01.05

Pietrzyk, Irena/Jacob, Marita/Erdmann, Melinda (2023): Who benefits from guidance counseling? Insights on native and immigrant students from low social origins. Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11577-023-00921-3

Erdmann, Melinda/Pietrzyk, Irena/Schneider, Juliana/Helbig, Marcel/Jacob, Marita/ Allmendinger, Jutta (2022): Bildungsungleichheit nach der Hochschulreife – das lässt sich ändern. Eine Untersuchung der Wirksamkeit eines intensiven Beratungsprogramms 1,5 Jahre nach dem Abitur, WZB Discussion Paper, P 2022-002, Berlin: Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung. https://bibliothek.wzb.eu/pdf/2022/p22-002.pdf

Erdmann, Melinda/Pietrzyk, Irena/Helbig, Marcel/Jacob, Marita/Stuth, Stefan (2022): Do intensive guidance programs reduce social inequality in the transition to higher education in Germany? Experimental evidence from the ZuBAb study 0.5 years after high school graduation, WZB Discussion Paper, P 2022-001, Berlin: Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung. https://bibliothek.wzb.eu/pdf/2022/p22-001.pdf

Erdmann, Melinda/Pietrzyk, Irena/Schneider, Juliana/Helbig, Marcel/Jacob, Marita/ Allmendinger, Jutta (2022): Soziale Ungleichheit beim Hochschulzugang verringern. Intensive Beratung fördert die Passung zwischen Potenzialen und Bildungsentscheidungen, WZBrief Bildung 45, Februar 2022, Berlin: WZB. http://bibliothek.wzb.eu/wzbrief-bildung/WZBriefBildung452022_erdmann_helbig_jacob_petrzyk_schneider_allmendinger.pdf

Erdmann, Melinda/Helbig, Marcel/Stuth, Stefan (2021): Lehrende als Gatekeeper für externe Förderprogramme im Bildungssystem. Eine Analyse von Fremdselektionsprozessen bei der Schülerauswahl anhand einer Bildungsintervention. Soziale Welt: Zeitschrift für Sozialwissenschaftliche Forschung und Praxis. 72. 255-282. https://doi.org/10.5771/0038-6073-2021-3-255

Pietrzyk, Irena/Erdmann, Melinda (2019): Investigating the impact of interventions on educational disparities: Estimating average treatment effects (ATEs) is not sufficient. Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, online first. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rssm.2019.100471  

Pietrzyk, Irena/Allmendinger, Jutta/Erdmann, Melinda/Helbig, Marcel/Jacob, Marita/Stuth, Stefan (2019): Future and Career Plans Before High School Graduation (ZuBAb). Background, Research Questions and Research Design, WZB Discussion Paper, P 2019-004, Berlin: Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung. https://bibliothek.wzb.eu/pdf/2019/p19-004.pdf