Climate conditions and return intentions

Do people permanently turn their backs on their homeland when climate-related natural disasters become more frequent there? It seems likely—but no studies have been conducted on this topic to date. WZB researchers Daniel Meierrieks and Irene Pañeda-Fernández surveyed West African immigrants in Germany about their future plans. 

There is little information about immigrants from West Africa and their views on whether they want to stay in Germany or eventually return to their home countries. Moreover, there is barely any research on how worsening climate conditions in Sub-Saharan Africa affect these return decisions. For a new study, Daniel Meierrieks and Irene Pañeda-Fernández from the Research Department Migration, Integration, Transnationalization analyzed survey data from first-generation West Africans immigrants in Germany to determine whether climate change influences their decision to return to their home country.  

The results 

• The study shows that migration is not necessarily a permanent decision. It includes temporary migration (e.g., circular migration) and return migration. Here, while most survey respondents do not intent to migrate back to their country of origin in the near future, about a third express the desire to eventually divide their time between their country of origin and Germany. 

• One reason why first-generation West African migrants in Germany may change their return migration plans are the detrimental effects of climate change in their home countries. Yet, the researchers find little evidence that these immigrants respond to climate conditions in origin. Instead, economic motives are decisive. Higher expected employment opportunities in the home country increase the desire to return, while better economic prospects in Germany decrease it. 

• The findings do not imply that climate conditions are irrelevant for return migration more broadly. For example, climate shocks can reduce economic prospects in origin countries, potentially shaping return intentions indirectly through lost economic opportunities.  Investigating such linkages—also via experimental approaches—may be a fruitful area of future research. 

The data  

As part of the TRANSMIT project, the researchers conducted the first representative survey of first-generation West African immigrants in Germany. Over 1,000 people were surveyed for the study “Do Climate Conditions in Origin Shape Return Migration Intentions?”; about 69 percent of the respondents were men and 31 percent were women. 83 percent want to stay in Germany in the near future; 4 percent plan to return in the next 5 years; 35 percent plan to eventually divide their time between their origin country and Germany (circular migration). 

Political implications 

The issue of return migration is important for both host and home countries. For instance, while host countries may want to retain migrant talent, home countries may be interested in luring the same talent back home. For the time being, the empirical results suggest that when designing related policy initiatives, policymakers are well advised to consider the influence of socio-economic prospects more strongly in host and home countries rather than to focus on climate concerns. 

11.05.26 / kes