Dienstag, 8. Oktober 2013
CO:STA presentation by Ryan Finnigan (WZB)
Our commonly used frequentist statistics tell us the likelihood to have randomly drawn our particular random dataset at hand, if in reality the null-hypothesis was true. This is quite complicated and so it comes at no surprise that we often falsely interpret these inferential statistics as the likelihood that the null-hypothesis is true, or even worse that a statistically significant finding is highly likely to be true. But is it not possible to infer the likelihood of our findings given the data rather than the likelihood of our data given the findings? Yes it is possible within the framework of Bayesian statistics.
Western, Bruce (2001) 'Bayesian Thinking about Macrosociology', American Journal of Sociology 107(2): 353-78.